西安市日用水量的非線性時間序列模型.pdf

1、西安理工大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文西安市日用水量的非線性時間序列模型姓名：陳戰(zhàn)波申請學(xué)位級別：碩士專業(yè)：應(yīng)用數(shù)學(xué)指導(dǎo)教師：張德生20070301AbstraetTitle：THENONLINEARTIMESERlESMODELOFXIANURBANDAILYWATERDEMANDMajorAppliedMathematicsNarne：ZhanboCHENSupewisor=ProfDeshengZHANGAbstractSignature：豳k

2、曼H鼬Signature：絲留砂嘶WateruseforecastingisimportantformunicipalconstructionplanningandtheoperationofwatersupplysystemWateruseforecastingiscomposedoftheyearlyseasonal，monthlydailyandhourlymunicipalwateruseforecastingIntheseve

3、ralparts，dailyonehasakeypositionItmaynoUonlydirectlyguidetheproductionofwatersupplycorporations，butalsoofferthetechnic趄serviceforoptimalschedulinganaongseveralwatersupplycorporationsThispaperhasestablishednonparametricre

4、gressionmodel，partiallylinearARmodelandotherforecastingmodelsofxi’anurbandailywaterdemandbasedonthexi’arldailywaterusedatanlefour：aspectsareasfollows：Themuitilinearregressionmodelhasbeensetupandthepredictionerrorischecke

5、dbythe礦methodThepredictionerroriscorrected，atlastxi’alldailywaterusesynthesisforecastingmodelissetupandthepredictionelrorisnotgoodBasedontheregressionfunctionestimatedbythekernelestimationandlocallinearestimation，thenonp

6、arametricmultiregressionmodelofxi’allurbandailywaterdemandissetupBythecomparisonoffactdate，itWasprovedthatthenonpara!netricmultiregressionmodelCanmeetthepracticalrequirementofwatersupplydispatchsystemAccordingtoBJtimeser

7、iesmethodthelinearARmodelofxi’allwaterdailydemandissetup，ThecomputationresultshowsthattheforecastingmodelforthedailywaterconsumptionisnotgoodThepartiallylinearARmodelofxi’anwaterdailydemandissetupThelinearaspecttakesinto

8、accountthewaterdemandandthenonlinearaspecttakesintoaccounttiptoptemperatureThismodelnotonlyhasthemeritofregressivemodelbutalsohasthelinearautoregressivemodelmerit，SOitsforecastingresultisbetterBythecomparisonoftheformert