中小型水電站投資決策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析研究.pdf

1、天津大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文中小型水電站投資決策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析研究姓名：劉明月申請(qǐng)學(xué)位級(jí)別：碩士專業(yè)：水利水電工程指導(dǎo)教師：李振富2001.6.1AbstractHowtOidentifyandprotectinvestmentriskandhowtogethighestreturnoninvestmentaretwomainproblemsthatenterprisesshouldpayspecialattentionstoduringtheiri

2、nvestmentdecisiononmediumandsmallhydropowerproject，andalsoarethemaintopicsofthisarticlesRisksalwaysaccompanywithbusinessactivitiesWherethereisinvestment，thereisriskCombinedthecharacteristicsofmediumandsmallhydropowerstat

3、ionwiththeFaultTreeAnalysismethod，thefactorsofinvestmentdecisionriskarestudiedCapitalstructureandinvestmentdecisionriskarealwaysexplainedseparatelyintraditionaltheory，thisCausesdifficulttoavoidriskbymeansofadjustingcapit

4、alstructurebecausethetwocloserelatedfactorsarecutapartarbitrarilyInthisarticle，wecarriedOUtourresearchbyunitedthetwofactorsthroughapplyingBeyesriskanalysismethodTheresultshowsthatitisappropriatetohold51％～60％shareswheninv

5、estingmediumandsmallhydropowerstationWhenimplementingtraditionalfinancialevaluationononeproject，attentionsareoftenpaidtothosecalculatedfinancialdatainnormalconditions，theimpactsonthefinancialdatacausedbyuncertainfactorsa

6、reneglectedByadoptingprobabilityanalysismethod，thosefactorswhichwillcausemoreimpactsonfinancialdataarestudiedandwhetherornotanenterprisecallgetexpectedreturn0ninvestmentarediscussedBasedonanalysisandresearchdiscussedabov

7、e，andcitedtheGuoDuWanhydropowerstationinBaokangcounty，Hubeiprovinceasinstance，analysisresultsarepresentedinthelastpartofthisarticlebycomparingthefeasibilityresearchbeforeinvestmenttotheactualfactsaftertheprojectwasfinish